So who’s right? Will there ever be a tobacco settlement? Spirits were high last June when the state attorneys general and cigarette makers shook hands in a Washington hotel and sealed their $368 billion agreement. Some observers thought the deal would sail through Congress, which must bless any settlement. But as the summer dragged on, the deal faltered. Some public-health groups dumped all over it; C. Everett Koop, the influential former surgeon general, was among those frowning. And members of Congress made it clear they wanted to scrutinize the proposal, which would give the industry immunity from most lawsuits in exchange for gargantuan payments and vast changes in the way tobacco is sold in the United States. Even the public seemed to sour: a new CNN/Gallup poll shows that only about half of Americans back the deal. But the current angst is as misguided as last spring’s manic optimism. The sober view is that the deal will make it.
Several factors make ““yes’’ the most likely outcome. For one thing, the White House won’t stand in the way of a deal. Later this month Bill Clinton will announce what he wants in the settlement. The president is still pondering recommendations by domestic-policy adviser Bruce Reed and Health and Human Services Secretary Donna Shalala, but NEWSWEEK has learned that one important decision has already been made: Clinton will enunciate broad principles rather than specific demands. ““We learned our lesson from health care,’’ says a senior administration official, referring to the risks that come when a president offers complex legislation rather than leaving it to Congress. That should help the deal. Among Clinton’s likely stipulations: a stronger role for the Food and Drug Administration in regulating nicotine, stiffer penalties if youth smoking fails to decline and more disclosure of industry documents. Each is acceptable to the industry and the Hill.
Congress is not expected to be a huge obstacle. The legislators want to have their voices heard, but none wants to take the blame for seeing the deal fall through. Finally, several court decisions are pushing the deal forward. Later this fall the Fourth Circuit will rule on the FDA’s authority to regulate nicotine. If it upholds a lower-court decision giving the agency leeway, that’ll add fuel to a settlement. And for all the confusion last week, the state settlements show that the industry is intent on getting a deal. ““We wouldn’t have done it unless it adds some momentum to the national deal,’’ says one industry source. After all, it’s still cheaper to write one check to Uncle Sam than to pay one settlement at a time.
