So far, no Democrat has stepped forward to announce–a marked contrast to four years ago, when Rep. Richard Gephardt made 145 trips to 38 states and Bruce Babbitt was practically living in Iowa. These days, anti-Washington feeling is so strong among voters that there’s no honor in declaring yourself two years in advance. But clearly, many Democrats are reassessing their prospects. “If you believe George Bush can be beaten in 1992,” says political consultant Joe Trippi, “then you have to be telling yourself that if you don’t run, you can’t hope to stand for election until the year 2000.” By next spring, at least one of these Democrats should be at the starting gate:
Cuomo: While Mario Cuomo, the “Hamlet of Albany,” makes up his mind, other candidates are on hold. “Until the big guns decide whether to uncap, no one else shoots,” says Michael McCurry, a former Democratic National Committee spokesman. But the New York governor remains coy about his intentions. “I have no plans and no plans to have plans,” he told NEWSWEEK. Yet he has refused to promise to serve out his whole term. After he handily wins re-election next Tuesday, he will have a $5 million war chest to underwrite a presidential run.
Bradley: With his combination of intellect and jock appeal, Bill Bradley will win re-election easily this week. He has promised to serve out his six-year term. But the soporific speaker appears to be preparing just in case: Bradley has been taking speech lessons for the last year from a Hollywood coach. Like Cuomo, he will have a $5 million campaign war chest. But Bradley–ostensibly an expert on fiscal policy–may have lost some of his luster by keeping such a low profile during the budget crisis.
Nunn: The only Democrat with commander-in-chief credentials, Sen. Sam Nunn’s stock is on the rise thanks to the Persian Gulf crisis. The conventional wisdom has always been that Nunn is too conservative to survive a nomination process dominated by party liberals. But the Georgian recently shifted to a pro-choice position and resigned from Burning Tree, a discriminatory private club.
Kerrey: Attractive and young (47). Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey is a leading dark horse. A Vietnam veteran who lost part of his leg in combat, he would shield the Dems against any soft-on-defense attacks. But some analysts think his time has not yet arrived. Kerry would be an ideal number two for just about anybody.
Wilder: The nation’s first elected black governor, Doug Wilder has spent his first year in office traveling around the country discussing “New Mainstream” issues and courting the press. He is clearly positioning himself for national office, but few observers think he’ll make an outright run in ‘92. He is a possible vice-presidential pick.
Gephardt: As the chief architect of the Democrats’ budget strategy in Congress, Gephardt has gained stature in both parties. But as majority leader, he made a commitment not to run for the presidency in ‘92, and he is expected to keep his word.
For the first time in more than a decade, Democrats could go into this election more unified than the Republicans. But Democrats being Democrats, they will probably squander their advantage. The recurring nightmare among strategists is a three-way debate between three of the party’s biggest egos: Cuomo, Jackson and John Silber, the Massachusetts gubernatorial candidate who could become an overnight presidential prospect. A contest between these giants could make Democrats nostalgic for the “seven dwarfs” of ‘88.